A recent study by the World Resources Institute (WRI) India suggests that India’s transport sector could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by up to 71% by 2050 through the implementation of high-ambition strategies. This significant reduction hinges on three key measures including, advancing electrification, enhancing fuel economy standards, and transitioning to cleaner modes of transport and mobility.
World Resources Institute (WRI)
- It is a global research organisation founded in 1982, with its headquarters located in Washington, USA.
- It spans more than 60 countries and focuses on six critical issues at the intersection of environment and development: climate, energy, food, forests, water, and cities and transport.
- WRI works with government, business, and civil society to drive ambitious action based on high-quality data and objective analysis.
Key Findings of the Report
Current Emissions and Need for Targets
- In 2020, India’s transport sector was responsible for 14% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions. There is an urgent need to establish an emission reduction roadmap and specific targets for this sector.
Impact on Net-Zero Goals
- Achieving high emission reduction targets in the transport sector is crucial for India to meet its net-zero emissions goal by 2070.
Cost-Effectiveness of Decarbonisation
- Transitioning to low-carbon transport is identified as the most cost-effective long-term policy, with potential savings of Rs. 12,118 per tonne of CO2 equivalent abated.
Electric Vehicle Mandates
- Expanding Electric Vehicle sales is particularly effective, with an annual CO2 emissions abatement potential of 121 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Complementing this with decarbonisation of electricity generation could enhance results.
Additional Policy Benefits
- Implementing a carbon-free electricity standard with 75% renewable energy could further achieve a 75% reduction in emissions by 2050.
Future Fossil Fuel Dependency
- Without significant intervention, fossil fuel consumption in the transport sector is expected to quadruple by 2050, driven by increased passenger and freight travel demands.
Current Emission Sources
- Road transport accounts for 90% of the sector’s emissions. Railways, aviation, and waterways account for a smaller fraction of energy consumption.
Major Challenges in Achieving Transport Decarbonisation
High Dependence on Fossil Fuels
- The global transportation sector is heavily reliant on fossil fuels such as gasoline and diesel, making the transition to cleaner alternatives challenging.
- Fossil fuel infrastructure is deeply embedded, and a complete overhaul requires significant time and resources.
BAU (business as usual) Scenario
- Under a BAU scenario, India’s fossil fuel consumption (LPG, diesel, and petrol) is expected to increase fourfold by 2050, primarily due to rising demand in passenger and freight transport.
- Passenger travel is anticipated to witness a threefold growth by 2050, while freight transport is projected to increase sevenfold, further driving the surge in fossil fuel consumption.
Lack of Clean Energy Infrastructure
- Inadequate infrastructure for EV charging, hydrogen refuelling, and biofuel availability poses a major barrier to the widespread adoption of clean energy in transport.
Energy Grid Constraints
- The decarbonisation of transport is closely linked to the availability of renewable energy for the power grid.
- In many regions, electricity generation is still dominated by fossil fuels, limiting the benefits of electrification unless the energy mix is also cleaned up.
Slow Policy Implementation and Regulatory Gaps
- The pace of policy formulation and enforcement for transport decarbonisation is often slow.
- Regulatory frameworks for emissions standards, fuel efficiency, and alternative fuels are either lacking or insufficiently stringent in many countries, impeding progress.
Consumer Behavior and Market Acceptance
- Public reluctance to adopt alternative transportation modes or vehicles due to unfamiliarity, cost concerns, and perceived inconvenience hinders progress.
- Behavioural inertia and attachment to traditional vehicles present a significant challenge to scaling up clean transport solutions.
Technological and Supply Chain Barriers
- Achieving transport decarbonisation requires advances in battery technology, hydrogen production, and sustainable biofuel production.
- Supply chain disruptions for critical components, such as lithium and rare earth metals, can further complicate the transition.
Financing and Investment Constraints
- Decarbonising transport at scale demands massive capital investment in infrastructure, technology, and research and development.
- In developing nations, limited financial resources and competing development priorities restrict the capacity to invest in sustainable transport solutions.
International Coordination
- International coordination is crucial for effectively decarbonising the transport sector, but differing regulations, standards, and levels of commitment across countries create barriers to collaboration.